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AF307 0121E

This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

AF307 (USAF Reserve WC-130J) · 2026-10-15 15:04 – 19:44 UTC ·2 center fixes · archived observations, not a live position.

104°W102°W100°W98°W96°W12°N14°N16°N18°N20°NAircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-15 16:45 UTCAircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-15 18:15 UTCDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:16 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1007 mb Surface wind: 035° 27 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:32 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1004 mb Surface wind: 040° 25 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 992 mb Surface wind: 015° 51 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)Dropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:49 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 980 mb Surface wind: 150° 15 kt Remark: Released at the centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:55 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 996 mb Surface wind: 165° 50 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (225°)Dropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:55 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 996 mb Surface wind: 165° 50 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (135°)Dropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 185° 39 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:12 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 180° 35 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:45 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1007 mb Surface wind: 085° 29 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 18:01 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1002 mb Surface wind: 115° 40 kt
Flight-level wind:< 34 kt34–49 kt50–63 kt64–82 kt83–95 kt96–112 kt113+ ktRinged dots: center fixes (observations). Open circles: dropsonde splash points. Dashed: best track, ±12 h around the mission.

Storm-relative view

25 nm50 nm100 nm150 nmNNESESWNWDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:16 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1007 mb Surface wind: 035° 27 kt Splash 116 nm at 312° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:32 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1004 mb Surface wind: 040° 25 kt Splash 59 nm at 307° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:45 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 992 mb Surface wind: 015° 51 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Splash 15 nm at 289° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:49 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 980 mb Surface wind: 150° 15 kt Remark: Released at the center Splash 1 nm at 091° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:55 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 996 mb Surface wind: 165° 50 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (225°) Splash 21 nm at 120° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 16:55 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 996 mb Surface wind: 165° 50 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (135°) Splash 21 nm at 120° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:00 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 185° 39 kt Splash 42 nm at 129° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:12 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 180° 35 kt Splash 81 nm at 132° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 17:45 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1007 mb Surface wind: 085° 29 kt Splash 105 nm at 044° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-15 18:01 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1002 mb Surface wind: 115° 40 kt Splash 48 nm at 047° (NE) from the estimated centerPass 1: peak 10-s flight-level wind 57 kt, 10 nm at 300° (NW) from the estimated center, 16:41 UTCPass 2: peak 10-s flight-level wind 81 kt, 14 nm at 057° (NE) from the estimated center, 18:07 UTCPass 3: peak 10-s flight-level wind 84 kt, 16 nm at 103° (SE) from the estimated center, 18:19 UTC
Peak 10-s flight-level wind, per passDropsonde splash pointEstimated centerObservations relative to the estimated storm center (best track refined by this mission’s aircraft center fixes), north up, within 150 nm; not the best track. Track colored by flight-level wind, as on the map above.

Observations along the flight

From the HDOB messages, every 30 seconds. Gaps are missing values or missing messages. Shading: a rapid-intensification episode.

Extrapolated surface pressure and peak flight-level wind

Center fixes (observations), minimum sea-level pressure: Dropsonde-measuredExtrapolated from flight level

SFMR surface wind and rain rate
Flight-level temperature and dewpoint
Aircraft pressure and geopotential height

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