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AF306 0221E

This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

AF306 (USAF Reserve WC-130J) · 2026-10-16 17:04 – 20:04 UTC ·2 center fixes · archived observations, not a live position.

105°W104°W103°W102°W101°W100°W99°W13°N14°N15°N16°N17°N18°N19°NAircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-16 18:02 UTCAircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-16 19:12 UTCDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 17:39 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1006 mb Surface wind: 110° 35 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 17:52 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 095° 39 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:02 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 989 mb Surface wind: 085° 48 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)Dropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:05 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 983 mb Surface wind: 105° 14 kt Remark: Released at the centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:21 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 025° 34 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:32 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 040° 35 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:58 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1003 mb Surface wind: 305° 26 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:05 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 995 mb Surface wind: 310° 38 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:15 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 984 mb Surface wind: 165° 18 kt Remark: Released at the centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:20 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 990 mb Surface wind: 145° 48 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:21 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 993 mb Surface wind: 140° 51 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)Dropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:30 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1000 mb Surface wind: 125° 44 ktDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:43 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 130° 30 kt
Flight-level wind:< 34 kt34–49 kt50–63 kt64–82 kt83–95 kt96–112 kt113+ ktRinged dots: center fixes (observations). Open circles: dropsonde splash points. Dashed: best track, ±12 h around the mission.

Storm-relative view

25 nm50 nm100 nm150 nmNNESESWNWDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 17:39 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1006 mb Surface wind: 110° 35 kt Splash 102 nm at 040° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 17:52 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 095° 39 kt Splash 47 nm at 034° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:02 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 989 mb Surface wind: 085° 48 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Splash 11 nm at 009° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:05 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 983 mb Surface wind: 105° 14 kt Remark: Released at the center Splash 1 nm at 325° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:21 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1001 mb Surface wind: 025° 34 kt Splash 55 nm at 307° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:32 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 040° 35 kt Splash 104 nm at 313° (NW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 18:58 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1003 mb Surface wind: 305° 26 kt Splash 71 nm at 226° (SW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:05 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 995 mb Surface wind: 310° 38 kt Splash 40 nm at 226° (SW) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:15 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 984 mb Surface wind: 165° 18 kt Remark: Released at the center Splash 3 nm at 106° (SE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:20 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 990 mb Surface wind: 145° 48 kt Splash 19 nm at 079° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:21 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 993 mb Surface wind: 140° 51 kt Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Splash 24 nm at 083° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:30 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1000 mb Surface wind: 125° 44 kt Splash 54 nm at 088° (NE) from the estimated centerDropsonde (observation) Time: 2026-10-16 19:43 UTC (splash) Surface pressure: 1005 mb Surface wind: 130° 30 kt Splash 106 nm at 091° (SE) from the estimated centerPass 1: peak 10-s flight-level wind 67 kt, 29 nm at 034° (NE) from the estimated center, 17:54 UTCPass 2: peak 10-s flight-level wind 54 kt, 34 nm at 305° (NW) from the estimated center, 18:13 UTCPass 3: peak 10-s flight-level wind 76 kt, 23 nm at 094° (SE) from the estimated center, 19:18 UTC
Peak 10-s flight-level wind, per passDropsonde splash pointEstimated centerObservations relative to the estimated storm center (best track refined by this mission’s aircraft center fixes), north up, within 150 nm; not the best track. Track colored by flight-level wind, as on the map above.

Observations along the flight

From the HDOB messages, every 30 seconds. Gaps are missing values or missing messages.

Extrapolated surface pressure and peak flight-level wind

Center fixes (observations), minimum sea-level pressure:Dropsonde-measured

SFMR surface wind and rain rate
Flight-level temperature and dewpoint
Aircraft pressure and geopotential height

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