Recon › Isaias
AF309 1209A This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center .
AF309 (USAF Reserve WC-130J) · 2026-10-09 06:37 – 15:36 UTC ·6 center fixes · archived observations, not a live position. Thinned to one observation a minute in storage.
94°W 92°W 90°W 88°W 86°W 24°N 26°N 28°N 30°N 32°N Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 08:32 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 09:40 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 10:58 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 13:04 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 14:24 UTC Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:06 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 055° 33 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:35 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 964 mb
Surface wind: 180° 13 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:41 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 974 mb
Surface wind: 110° 90 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 155° 32 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:19 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 085° 35 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 974 mb
Surface wind: 035° 88 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:43 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 962 mb
Surface wind: 215° 17 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:50 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 978 mb
Surface wind: 275° 71 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (225°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:10 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 330° 34 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:38 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 190° 39 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:58 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 966 mb
Surface wind: 155° 75 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (135°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 125° 9 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:04 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 973 mb
Surface wind: 355° 80 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (315°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:27 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 060° 46 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:39 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 030° 33 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:01 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 965 mb
Surface wind: 345° 64 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (270°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:03 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 960 mb
Surface wind: 115° 6 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:09 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 969 mb
Surface wind: 125° 77 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:28 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 145° 35 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:43 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1002 mb
Surface wind: 090° 37 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 979 mb
Surface wind: 080° 84 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:07 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 270° 6 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:14 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 982 mb
Surface wind: 240° 47 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (180°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:35 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1002 mb
Surface wind: 225° 34 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:03 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 130° 41 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:24 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 966 mb
Surface wind: 130° 67 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:53 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 050° 46 kt Flight-level wind: Ringed dots: center fixes (observations). Open circles: dropsonde splash points. Dashed: best track, ±12 h around the mission. Storm-relative view 25 nm 50 nm 100 nm N NE SE SW NW Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:06 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 055° 33 kt
Splash 86 nm at 287° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:35 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 964 mb
Surface wind: 180° 13 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 1 nm at 146° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 08:41 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 974 mb
Surface wind: 110° 90 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)
Splash 14 nm at 074° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 155° 32 kt
Splash 85 nm at 089° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:19 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 085° 35 kt
Splash 88 nm at 041° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 974 mb
Surface wind: 035° 88 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)
Splash 8 nm at 326° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:43 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 962 mb
Surface wind: 215° 17 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 0 nm at 131° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 09:50 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 978 mb
Surface wind: 275° 71 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (225°)
Splash 20 nm at 190° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:10 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 330° 34 kt
Splash 78 nm at 219° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:38 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 190° 39 kt
Splash 85 nm at 129° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 10:58 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 966 mb
Surface wind: 155° 75 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (135°)
Splash 13 nm at 104° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 125° 9 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 1 nm at 206° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:04 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 973 mb
Surface wind: 355° 80 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (315°)
Splash 9 nm at 269° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:27 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 060° 46 kt
Splash 87 nm at 307° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 11:39 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 030° 33 kt
Splash 84 nm at 272° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:01 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 965 mb
Surface wind: 345° 64 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (270°)
Splash 5 nm at 246° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:03 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 960 mb
Surface wind: 115° 6 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 1 nm at 173° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:09 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 969 mb
Surface wind: 125° 77 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)
Splash 18 nm at 083° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:28 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 145° 35 kt
Splash 86 nm at 088° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 12:43 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1002 mb
Surface wind: 090° 37 kt
Splash 90 nm at 043° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:02 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 979 mb
Surface wind: 080° 84 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)
Splash 17 nm at 029° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:07 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 270° 6 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 1 nm at 193° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:14 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 982 mb
Surface wind: 240° 47 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (180°)
Splash 23 nm at 177° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 13:35 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1002 mb
Surface wind: 225° 34 kt
Splash 93 nm at 176° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:03 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 130° 41 kt
Splash 86 nm at 086° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:24 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 966 mb
Surface wind: 130° 67 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)
Splash 10 nm at 088° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 14:53 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 050° 46 kt
Splash 90 nm at 305° (NW) from the estimated center Pass 1: peak 10-s flight-level wind 76 kt, 6 nm at 279° (NW) from the estimated center, 08:30 UTC Pass 2: peak 10-s flight-level wind 107 kt, 20 nm at 095° (SE) from the estimated center, 08:38 UTC Pass 3: peak 10-s flight-level wind 102 kt, 15 nm at 125° (SE) from the estimated center, 10:54 UTC Pass 4: peak 10-s flight-level wind 92 kt, 9 nm at 301° (NW) from the estimated center, 11:01 UTC Pass 5: peak 10-s flight-level wind 120 kt, 21 nm at 099° (SE) from the estimated center, 12:06 UTC Pass 6: peak 10-s flight-level wind 111 kt, 25 nm at 092° (SE) from the estimated center, 14:17 UTC Pass 7: peak 10-s flight-level wind 85 kt, 11 nm at 285° (NW) from the estimated center, 14:28 UTC Observations relative to the estimated storm center (best track refined by this mission’s aircraft center fixes), north up, within 100 nm; not the best track. Track colored by flight-level wind, as on the map above. Ferry legs beyond 100 nm not shown. Pass 1 (07:46–08:32 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 6 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NW) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 2 (08:32–09:40 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 20 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 3 (09:40–10:58 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 15 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 4 (10:58–12:00 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 9 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NW) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 5 (12:00–13:04 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 21 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 6 (13:04–14:24 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 25 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 7 (14:24–15:02 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 11 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NW) — an estimate, not an analysis Observations along the flight From the HDOB messages, every 30 seconds. Gaps are missing values or missing messages. Shading: a rapid-intensification episode.
Extrapolated surface pressure and peak flight-level wind
Center fixes (observations), minimum sea-level pressure:Extrapolated from flight level
SFMR surface wind and rain rate
Flight-level temperature and dewpoint
Aircraft pressure and geopotential height
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