This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-10-11 12:00 UTC — Isaias is no longer being actively tracked (Extratropical Cyclone). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Extratropical Cyclone Isaias AL092026

Peak 105 kt (Category 3) · Recorded 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC – 2026-10-11 12:00 UTC · 19 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 14 of 14 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (100%)

Category 3105 kt peakRI: +35 kt in 24 h beginning 10/7 06Z

Final position 37.5°N 84.0°W · last moving ENE at 19 kt · final pressure 1010 mb · final advisory 20, 2026-10-11 15:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

+35 kt/24 h peak — 2026-10-07 00:00 UTC to 2026-10-09 12:00 UTC (30 → 105 kt, +75 kt across the episode)

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

Observed trackRapid intensification

Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

Recon

29 of 38 aircraft fixes fell inside a rapid-intensification episode.

Hurricane Hunter observations archived from NHC: 38 aircraft fixes and 13 archived flights. Observations, not the best track.

Best-track pressureDropsonde-measuredExtrapolated from flight levelAircraft minimum sea-level pressure (mb)Rapid intensification

Best-track windPeak flight-level wind(kt)

Best trackFixes: 10-07 12:33 10-09 22:47 UTC

Fix log (37 fixes with measurements)

Time (UTC)	Mission	Position	Flight level	Min. SLP	SLP method	FL wind	Fix type	Eye
10-07 12:33	AF304 0209A	22.40°N 93.97°W	850 mb	1004 mb	dropsonde	43 kt	center
10-07 13:43	AF304 0209A	22.51°N 93.91°W	850 mb	1002 mb	dropsonde	38 kt	center
10-07 14:56	AF304 0209A	22.50°N 93.73°W	850 mb	1002 mb	dropsonde	46 kt	center
10-07 16:47	NOAA3 0309A	22.47°N 93.52°W	700 mb	997 mb	dropsonde	46 kt	center
10-07 17:57	NOAA3 0309A	22.51°N 93.28°W	700 mb	997 mb	dropsonde	58 kt	center
10-07 19:06	NOAA3 0309A	22.58°N 93.09°W	700 mb	996 mb	dropsonde	61 kt	center
10-07 23:58	AF301 0509A	22.73°N 92.27°W	700 mb	988 mb	dropsonde	48 kt	center
10-08 01:13	AF301 0509A	22.82°N 92.07°W	700 mb	989 mb	dropsonde	50 kt	center	C7 (OPEN SW)
10-08 02:48	AF301 0509A	22.91°N 91.87°W	700 mb	982 mb	dropsonde	57 kt	center
10-08 04:34	AF301 0509A	23.07°N 91.71°W	700 mb	985 mb	dropsonde	70 kt	center
10-08 05:07	NOAA2 0609A	23.05°N 91.68°W		983 mb	dropsonde	63 kt	center	C30 (OPEN SE)
10-08 06:24	NOAA2 0609A	23.13°N 91.59°W	700 mb	984 mb	dropsonde	64 kt	center	E01/31/18 (OPEN SE)
10-08 07:29	NOAA2 0609A	23.18°N 91.40°W	700 mb	983 mb	dropsonde	75 kt	center	C17 (OPEN SE)
10-08 11:56	AF305 0709A	23.40°N 90.58°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	78 kt	center	C15 (CLOSED)
10-08 13:38	AF305 0709A	23.58°N 90.36°W	700 mb	979 mb	dropsonde	76 kt	center	C12 (OPEN SW)
10-08 15:09	AF305 0709A	23.66°N 90.21°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	84 kt	center	C30 (OPEN SW)
10-08 16:03	NOAA3 0809A	23.67°N 90.11°W		976 mb	dropsonde	75 kt	center
10-08 16:39	AF305 0709A	23.74°N 90.08°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	69 kt	center	C26 (OPEN S-SW)
10-08 17:17	NOAA3 0809A	23.85°N 89.90°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	77 kt	center
10-08 18:24	NOAA3 0809A	23.95°N 89.76°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	71 kt	center	C35 (CLOSED)
10-09 04:35	NOAA3 1109A	25.60°N 88.55°W		973 mb	dropsonde	86 kt	center	C20 (CLOSED)
10-09 04:53	AF307 1009A	25.68°N 88.53°W	700 mb	973 mb	dropsonde	94 kt	center	C30 (OPEN SE)
10-09 05:35	NOAA3 1109A	25.72°N 88.47°W		972 mb	dropsonde	99 kt	center	C23 (CLOSED)
10-09 06:25	AF307 1009A	25.85°N 88.37°W	700 mb	970 mb	dropsonde	87 kt	center	C25 (CLOSED)
10-09 08:32	AF309 1209A	26.26°N 88.05°W	700 mb	964 mb	dropsonde	107 kt	center	C24 (OPEN NE)
10-09 09:40	AF309 1209A	26.50°N 87.88°W	700 mb	962 mb	dropsonde	91 kt	center	C24 (NE OPEN)
10-09 10:58	AF309 1209A	26.76°N 87.76°W	700 mb	959 mb	dropsonde	102 kt	center	C20 (OPEN SE)
10-09 12:00	AF309 1209A	27.00°N 87.63°W	700 mb	960 mb	dropsonde	120 kt	center	C20 (OPEN SW)
10-09 13:04	AF309 1209A	27.24°N 87.52°W	700 mb	959 mb	dropsonde	106 kt	center	C24 (OPEN SW)
10-09 14:24	AF309 1209A	27.52°N 87.45°W	700 mb	960 mb	extrapolated	111 kt	center	C18 (OPEN SE)
10-09 16:05	NOAA3 1309A	27.97°N 87.30°W		961 mb	dropsonde	118 kt	center	C30 (CLOSED)
10-09 17:15	NOAA3 1309A	28.29°N 87.21°W		963 mb	dropsonde	126 kt	center	C20 (OPEN SW)
10-09 17:27	AF301 1409A	28.34°N 87.20°W	700 mb	961 mb	dropsonde	136 kt	center	E27/24/17 (CLOSED)
10-09 18:29	NOAA3 1309A	28.59°N 87.11°W		958 mb	dropsonde	117 kt	center
10-09 18:42	AF301 1409A	28.70°N 87.11°W	700 mb	958 mb	extrapolated	128 kt	center	C26 (OPEN E)
10-09 20:48	AF301 1409A	29.26°N 86.98°W	700 mb	959 mb	dropsonde	110 kt	center	C20 (OPEN SE)
10-09 22:47	AF301 1409A	29.79°N 86.76°W	700 mb	972 mb	dropsonde	91 kt	center	C14 (OPEN SE)

All flights for Isaias on the Recon page

SHIPS data captured 2026-10-05 18:00 UTC – 2026-10-11 06:00 UTC · Peak intensity 105 kt · 19 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment

Environmental history across Isaias's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value. The aircraft lane shows each aircraft fix (observation) of minimum sea-level pressure, from NHC's ATCF fix file; it is not the best track.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.