Recon › Isaias
AF301 1409A This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center .
AF301 (USAF Reserve WC-130J) · 2026-10-09 14:51 – 10-10 00:51 UTC ·4 center fixes · archived observations, not a live position. Thinned to one observation a minute in storage.
100°W 98°W 96°W 94°W 92°W 90°W 88°W 86°W 84°W 26°N 28°N 30°N 32°N Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 17:27 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 18:42 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 20:48 UTC Aircraft fix (observation), 2026-10-09 22:47 UTC Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:13 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 005° 46 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:27 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 976 mb
Surface wind: 355° 94 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (270°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:31 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 961 mb
Surface wind: 260° 15 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:37 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 969 mb
Surface wind: 100° 87 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:37 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 971 mb
Surface wind: 100° 83 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:56 UTC (launch) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:15 UTC (launch) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:36 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 982 mb
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 968 mb
Surface wind: 085° 87 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:51 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 970 mb
Surface wind: 245° 51 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 19:15 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 325° 38 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 19:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 195° 39 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:16 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 991 mb
Surface wind: 310° 54 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:46 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 965 mb
Surface wind: 200° 58 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:51 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 215° 19 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:57 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 985 mb
Remark: Released in the eyewall (315°) Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 21:10 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 020° 60 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 21:34 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 998 mb
Surface wind: 340° 39 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:22 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 160° 48 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:32 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 996 mb
Surface wind: 165° 51 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:50 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 972 mb
Surface wind: 050° 18 kt
Remark: Released at the center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:58 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 980 mb
Surface wind: 305° 58 kt Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 23:05 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 992 mb
Surface wind: 335° 53 kt Flight-level wind: Ringed dots: center fixes (observations). Open circles: dropsonde splash points. Dashed: best track, ±12 h around the mission. Storm-relative view 25 nm 50 nm 100 nm N NE SE SW NW Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:13 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 005° 46 kt
Splash 63 nm at 273° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:27 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 976 mb
Surface wind: 355° 94 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (270°)
Splash 15 nm at 261° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:31 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 961 mb
Surface wind: 260° 15 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 2 nm at 150° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:37 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 969 mb
Surface wind: 100° 87 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)
Splash 17 nm at 057° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:37 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 971 mb
Surface wind: 100° 83 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (090°)
Splash 19 nm at 058° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 17:56 UTC (launch)
Splash 89 nm at 093° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:15 UTC (launch)
Splash 86 nm at 046° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:36 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 982 mb
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)
Splash 26 nm at 046° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 968 mb
Surface wind: 085° 87 kt
Remark: Released in the eyewall (045°)
Splash 15 nm at 040° (NE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 18:51 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 970 mb
Surface wind: 245° 51 kt
Splash 19 nm at 161° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 19:15 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1000 mb
Surface wind: 325° 38 kt
Splash 73 nm at 215° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 19:42 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 1001 mb
Surface wind: 195° 39 kt
Splash 86 nm at 132° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:16 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 991 mb
Surface wind: 310° 54 kt
Splash 37 nm at 212° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:46 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 965 mb
Surface wind: 200° 58 kt
Splash 16 nm at 148° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:51 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 959 mb
Surface wind: 215° 19 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 0 nm at 225° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 20:57 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 985 mb
Remark: Released in the eyewall (315°)
Splash 19 nm at 313° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 21:10 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 020° 60 kt
Splash 65 nm at 308° (NW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 21:34 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 998 mb
Surface wind: 340° 39 kt
Splash 59 nm at 224° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:22 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 999 mb
Surface wind: 160° 48 kt
Splash 75 nm at 105° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:32 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 996 mb
Surface wind: 165° 51 kt
Splash 57 nm at 116° (SE) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:50 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 972 mb
Surface wind: 050° 18 kt
Remark: Released at the center
Splash 7 nm at 212° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 22:58 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 980 mb
Surface wind: 305° 58 kt
Splash 27 nm at 190° (SW) from the estimated center Dropsonde (observation)
Time: 2026-10-09 23:05 UTC (splash)
Surface pressure: 992 mb
Surface wind: 335° 53 kt
Splash 47 nm at 207° (SW) from the estimated center Pass 1: peak 10-s flight-level wind 70 kt, 18 nm at 281° (NW) from the estimated center, 17:23 UTC Pass 2: peak 10-s flight-level wind 136 kt, 20 nm at 079° (NE) from the estimated center, 17:33 UTC Pass 3: peak 10-s flight-level wind 115 kt, 12 nm at 183° (SW) from the estimated center, 18:46 UTC Pass 4: peak 10-s flight-level wind 109 kt, 13 nm at 330° (NW) from the estimated center, 20:52 UTC Pass 5: peak 10-s flight-level wind 105 kt, 26 nm at 112° (SE) from the estimated center, 21:56 UTC Pass 6: peak 10-s flight-level wind 73 kt, 45 nm at 188° (SW) from the estimated center, 23:06 UTC Observations relative to the estimated storm center (best track refined by this mission’s aircraft center fixes), north up, within 100 nm; not the best track. Track colored by flight-level wind, as on the map above. Ferry legs beyond 100 nm not shown. Pass 1 (16:52–17:28 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 18 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NW) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 2 (17:28–18:43 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 20 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 3 (18:43–20:48 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 12 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SW) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 4 (20:48–21:44 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 13 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, NW) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 5 (21:44–22:47 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 26 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SE) — an estimate, not an analysis Pass 6 (22:47–23:40 UTC): flight-level RMW estimate 45 nm (distance of the peak 10-s flight-level wind, SW) — an estimate, not an analysis Observations along the flight From the HDOB messages, every 30 seconds. Gaps are missing values or missing messages.
Extrapolated surface pressure and peak flight-level wind
Center fixes (observations), minimum sea-level pressure:Extrapolated from flight level
SFMR surface wind and rain rate
Flight-level temperature and dewpoint
Aircraft pressure and geopotential height
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