This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical Storm Vance EP222026

15.4°N 105.7°W · moving WNW at 6 kt · Advisory 21, 2026-10-26 15:00 UTC

SHIPS coverage: 21 of 21 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (100%)

55 kt997 mbRI: +40 kt/24h

Rapid intensification

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

10°N20°N120°W100°W80°WRapid intensificationNHC official forecast track2026-10-18 18:00 UTC · 10.6°N 89.2°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 00:00 UTC · 10.7°N 90.3°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 06:00 UTC · 10.7°N 91.2°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 12:00 UTC · 10.7°N 92.1°W · 15 kt2026-10-19 18:00 UTC · 10.6°N 93.0°W · 20 kt2026-10-20 00:00 UTC · 10.3°N 94.0°W · 20 kt2026-10-20 06:00 UTC · 10.0°N 94.8°W · 25 kt2026-10-20 12:00 UTC · 10.0°N 95.6°W · 25 kt2026-10-20 18:00 UTC · 9.8°N 96.2°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 00:00 UTC · 9.7°N 96.9°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 06:00 UTC · 9.6°N 97.8°W · 25 kt2026-10-21 12:00 UTC · 9.5°N 98.7°W · 30 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 40%2026-10-21 18:00 UTC · 9.4°N 99.5°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 46%2026-10-22 00:00 UTC · 9.5°N 100.0°W · 35 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 39%2026-10-22 06:00 UTC · 9.6°N 100.5°W · 40 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 27%2026-10-22 12:00 UTC · 9.7°N 100.9°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 48%2026-10-22 18:00 UTC · 9.8°N 101.3°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 68%2026-10-23 00:00 UTC · 10.4°N 101.6°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 67%2026-10-23 06:00 UTC · 10.6°N 101.9°W · 70 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 46%2026-10-23 12:00 UTC · 10.6°N 102.1°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 21%2026-10-23 18:00 UTC · 11.0°N 102.2°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 16%2026-10-24 00:00 UTC · 11.6°N 102.6°W · 100 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 06:00 UTC · 12.0°N 102.9°W · 95 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 12:00 UTC · 12.5°N 103.1°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-24 18:00 UTC · 13.0°N 103.2°W · 85 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 00:00 UTC · 13.5°N 103.3°W · 80 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 06:00 UTC · 13.7°N 103.5°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 12:00 UTC · 13.9°N 103.6°W · 65 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-25 18:00 UTC · 14.6°N 104.0°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 00:00 UTC · 14.9°N 104.5°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 06:00 UTC · 15.2°N 104.9°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-10-26 12:00 UTC · 15.4°N 105.5°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%
Observed trackRapid intensificationNHC forecast
Position from ATCF best track and the current NHC official forecast. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.
24 h intensity change
-10 kt
past 24 h, best track
SHIPS-RII 30 kt / 24 h
0%
×0.0 climatology
SST along track
29.3 °C
SHIPS, 12:00 UTC run
Deep-layer shear
28 kt
850–200 mb

Intensity — past 72 h and official forecast

Maximum sustained wind (kt). Best track observed 6-hourly (solid); NHC official forecast (dashed). Vertical line marks the latest fix.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.

Rapid intensification probabilities

No RI signal this run — the 2026-10-26 12:00 UTC SHIPS run puts every RI threshold at 0%.

20 kt / 12 h0%×0.0 climo
25 kt / 24 h0%×0.0 climo
30 kt / 24 h0%×0.0 climo
35 kt / 24 h0%×0.0 climo
40 kt / 24 h0%×0.0 climo
45 kt / 36 h0%×0.0 climo
55 kt / 48 h0%×0.0 climo
65 kt / 72 h0%×0.0 climo

SHIPS rapid intensification index (RII): probability of each wind gain over each period, with its multiple of the basin climatological rate. Parsed from the 2026-10-26 12:00 UTC SHIPS run.

RI ingredients

Sea surface temperature29.3 °CFavorable

Warm water is the storm’s fuel — RI is rare below about 26.5 °C, and the most explosive cases ride water of 29 °C or more.

Ocean heat content26 kJ/cm²

Ocean heat content measures how much warm water lies below the surface. It matters most when a strong storm moves slowly, since the storm can stir cooler water up from below.

Deep-layer wind shear28 ktNot favorable

Shear tilts and ventilates the developing core — the calmer the winds aloft, the easier it is for the warm core to stack up vertically and deepen.

Mid-level humidity53%Not favorable

A moist middle atmosphere protects the core — dry air pulled in from outside evaporates cloud, cools the updrafts, and stalls intensification.

Forward speed6 ktFavorable

Slower forward motion is associated with rapid intensification in operational experience.

Radius of maximum wind30 n mi (56 km)Not favorable

How far the strongest winds sit from the center, in kilometres on this gauge. A small, tight inner core can spin up faster than a broad one.

Sea surface temperature, wind shear, humidity and ocean heat content are from the SHIPS run, at the storm's position at the start of the run. Radius of maximum wind is from NHC's CARQ analysis in the ATCF a-deck at that same time. Forward speed is from the latest NHC advisory, or from the last two best-track fixes when no advisory is active. Thresholds reflect operational forecasting guidance. Conditions outside a favorable range are not necessarily unfavorable: storms occasionally intensify outside these ranges, and plenty of favorable setups never produce RI. The first four describe the environment; radius of maximum wind and forward speed describe the storm itself. None of them explain the SHIPS-RII probability shown above, which uses information this page doesn't have. Planned addition: ocean salinity (barrier layers).