This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC — Simon is no longer being actively tracked (Disturbance). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Disturbance Simon EP202026

Peak 135 kt (Category 4) · Recorded 2026-10-04 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC · 41 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 37 of 37 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (100%)

Category 4135 kt peakRI: +45 kt in 24 h beginning 10/9 12Z

Final position 21.5°N 110.3°W · last moving NW at 11 kt · final pressure 1006 mb · final advisory 38, 2026-10-16 21:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

+45 kt/24 h peak — 2026-10-08 06:00 UTC to 2026-10-11 00:00 UTC (45 → 135 kt, +90 kt across the episode)

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

Observed trackRapid intensification

Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

Recon

3 of 7 aircraft fixes fell inside a rapid-intensification episode.

Hurricane Hunter observations archived from NHC: 7 aircraft fixes and 3 archived flights. Observations, not the best track.

Best-track pressureDropsonde-measuredExtrapolated from flight levelAircraft minimum sea-level pressure (mb)Rapid intensification

Best-track windPeak flight-level wind(kt)

Best trackFixes: 10-10 17:38 10-14 21:07 UTC

Fix log (7 fixes with measurements)

Time (UTC)	Mission	Position	Flight level	Min. SLP	SLP method	FL wind	Fix type	Eye
10-10 17:38	AF305 0120E	17.38°N 104.84°W	700 mb	933 mb	extrapolated	133 kt	center	CO12-36 (CLOSED)
10-10 18:49	AF305 0120E	17.46°N 104.84°W	700 mb	932 mb	extrapolated	116 kt	center	CO12-20 (CLOSED)
10-10 19:49	AF305 0120E	17.60°N 104.83°W	700 mb	932 mb	extrapolated	134 kt	center	CO12-36 (CLOSED)
10-11 05:46	AF302 0220E	18.38°N 105.04°W	700 mb	930 mb	dropsonde	135 kt	center	C13 (CLOSED)
10-11 06:51	AF302 0220E	18.44°N 105.10°W	700 mb	932 mb	dropsonde	132 kt	center	C13 (CLOSED)
10-14 19:59	AF307 0320E	19.38°N 108.25°W	700 mb	993 mb	dropsonde	45 kt	center	C16 (OPEN SW)
10-14 21:07	AF307 0320E	19.36°N 108.27°W	700 mb	992 mb	dropsonde	45 kt	center	C18 (OPEN S)

All flights for Simon on the Recon page

SHIPS data captured 2026-10-06 18:00 UTC – 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC · Peak intensity 135 kt · 41 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment

Environmental history across Simon's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value. The aircraft lane shows each aircraft fix (observation) of minimum sea-level pressure, from NHC's ATCF fix file; it is not the best track.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.