This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC — Polo is no longer being actively tracked (Disturbance). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Disturbance Polo EP172026

Peak 155 kt (Category 5) · Recorded 2026-09-17 12:00 UTC – 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC · 42 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 36 of 37 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (97%)

Category 5155 kt peakRI: +85 kt in 24 h beginning 9/21 12Z

Final position 30.5°N 108.0°W · last moving NE at 20 kt · final pressure 996 mb · final advisory 38, 2026-09-30 03:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

+85 kt/24 h peak — 2026-09-20 18:00 UTC to 2026-09-23 00:00 UTC (30 → 155 kt, +125 kt across the episode)

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

Observed trackRapid intensification

Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

Recon

7 of 22 aircraft fixes fell inside a rapid-intensification episode.

Hurricane Hunter observations archived from NHC: 22 aircraft fixes and 9 archived flights. Observations, not the best track.

Best-track pressureDropsonde-measuredExtrapolated from flight levelAircraft minimum sea-level pressure (mb)Rapid intensification

Best-track windPeak flight-level wind(kt)

Best trackFixes: 09-21 16:40 09-28 17:54 UTC

Fix log (22 fixes with measurements)

Time (UTC)	Mission	Position	Flight level	Min. SLP	SLP method	FL wind	Fix type	Eye
09-21 16:40	NOAA2 0117E	15.24°N 103.08°W	700 mb	980 mb	extrapolated	68 kt	center
09-21 17:52	NOAA2 0117E	15.22°N 103.00°W	700 mb	980 mb	dropsonde	71 kt	center	C10 (OPEN NE)
09-21 19:04	NOAA2 0117E	15.13°N 102.89°W	700 mb	977 mb	dropsonde	68 kt	center
09-22 18:13	NOAA3 WA17E	14.56°N 101.48°W		894 mb	dropsonde	166 kt	center	C12 (CLOSED)
09-22 18:58	NOAA3 WA17E	14.57°N 101.50°W		894 mb	dropsonde	168 kt	center	C12 (CLOSED)
09-22 19:59	NOAA3 WA17E	14.54°N 101.48°W		891 mb	extrapolated	155 kt	center	CO11-26 (CLOSED)
09-22 21:25	NOAA3 WA17E	14.57°N 101.44°W		898 mb	extrapolated	144 kt	center	C12 (CLOSED)
09-24 15:53	NOAA2 WB17E	16.80°N 104.59°W	700 mb	937 mb	dropsonde	133 kt	center	CO15-30 (CLOSED)
09-24 16:41	NOAA2 WB17E	16.84°N 104.74°W	700 mb	938 mb	dropsonde	134 kt	center	C30 (CLOSED)
09-24 17:32	NOAA2 WB17E	16.89°N 104.92°W	700 mb	936 mb	dropsonde	137 kt	center	C25 (CLOSED)
09-24 18:18	NOAA2 WB17E	16.94°N 104.99°W	700 mb	936 mb	extrapolated	136 kt	center	C25 (CLOSED)
09-25 17:09	NOAA2 WC17E	17.07°N 108.61°W	700 mb	917 mb	dropsonde	165 kt	center	C15 (CLOSED)
09-25 18:23	NOAA2 WC17E	17.11°N 108.81°W	700 mb	917 mb	dropsonde	148 kt	center	C16 (CLOSED)
09-25 19:23	NOAA2 WC17E	17.16°N 108.97°W	700 mb	916 mb	dropsonde	149 kt	center	C16 (CLOSED)
09-25 22:11	NOAA3 WD17E	17.23°N 109.42°W		914 mb	dropsonde	154 kt	center	C15 (CLOSED)
09-25 22:49	NOAA3 WD17E	17.25°N 109.54°W		913 mb	dropsonde	150 kt	center
09-27 00:25	NOAA2 0317E	19.00°N 112.89°W	700 mb	947 mb	extrapolated	108 kt	center	C25 (OPEN N)
09-27 01:20	NOAA2 0317E	19.10°N 113.02°W	700 mb	949 mb	dropsonde	114 kt	center	C25 (OPEN N)
09-27 16:57	NOAA2 0417E	21.19°N 114.01°W	700 mb	951 mb	dropsonde	117 kt	center	C22 (OPEN N)
09-27 18:19	NOAA2 0417E	21.42°N 114.08°W	700 mb	952 mb	dropsonde	113 kt	center	C22 (CLOSED)
09-28 16:37	NOAA2 0517E	24.42°N 113.58°W	700 mb	964 mb	dropsonde	106 kt	center	E09/23/15 (OPEN S)
09-28 17:54	NOAA2 0517E	24.58°N 113.42°W	700 mb	965 mb	dropsonde	100 kt	center	C23 (OPEN SW)

All flights for Polo on the Recon page

SHIPS data captured 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC – 2026-09-30 00:00 UTC · Peak intensity 155 kt · 42 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment

Environmental history across Polo's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value. The aircraft lane shows each aircraft fix (observation) of minimum sea-level pressure, from NHC's ATCF fix file; it is not the best track.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.