This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC — Nolo is no longer being actively tracked (Hurricane). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Hurricane Nolo EP152026

Peak 135 kt (Category 4) · Recorded 2026-09-10 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC · 63 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 55 of 56 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (98%)

Category 4135 kt peakRI: +50 kt in 24 h beginning 9/27 06Z

Final position 24.2°N 180.0°E · last moving W at 15 kt · final pressure 959 mb · final advisory 57, 2026-10-04 21:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

+35 kt/24 h peak — 2026-09-24 12:00 UTC to 2026-09-26 00:00 UTC (50 → 90 kt, +40 kt across the episode)
+50 kt/24 h peak — 2026-09-27 00:00 UTC to 2026-09-28 18:00 UTC (80 → 135 kt, +55 kt across the episode)
+40 kt/24 h peak — 2026-10-02 06:00 UTC to 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC (55 → 105 kt, +50 kt across the episode)

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

Observed trackRapid intensification

Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

Recon

17 of 27 aircraft fixes fell inside a rapid-intensification episode.

Hurricane Hunter observations archived from NHC: 27 aircraft fixes and 7 archived flights. Observations, not the best track.

Best-track pressureDropsonde-measuredAircraft minimum sea-level pressure (mb)Rapid intensification

Best-track windPeak flight-level wind(kt)

Best trackFixes: 09-25 00:19 09-27 16:36 UTC

Fix log (27 fixes with measurements)

Time (UTC)	Mission	Position	Flight level	Min. SLP	SLP method	FL wind	Fix type	Eye
09-25 00:19	AF302 0115E	14.80°N 156.04°W	700 mb	987 mb	dropsonde	68 kt	center
09-25 01:58	AF302 0115E	15.04°N 155.93°W	700 mb	985 mb	dropsonde	71 kt	center
09-25 05:54	AF306 0215E	15.20°N 155.71°W	700 mb	987 mb	dropsonde	81 kt	center	C45 (OPEN NE)
09-25 07:28	AF306 0215E	15.35°N 155.74°W	700 mb	986 mb	dropsonde	71 kt	center	E21/60/30 (SPIRAL BAND)
09-25 09:12	AF306 0215E	15.49°N 155.61°W	700 mb	984 mb	dropsonde	71 kt	center	C40 (CLOSED)
09-25 10:41	AF306 0215E	15.62°N 155.71°W	700 mb	982 mb	dropsonde	75 kt	center	C50 (CLOSED)
09-25 17:52	AF302 0315E	16.29°N 155.40°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	106 kt	center	E09/60/48 (CLOSED)
09-25 19:31	AF302 0315E	16.43°N 155.48°W	700 mb	980 mb	dropsonde	91 kt	center	C50 (CLOSED)
09-25 21:09	AF302 0315E	16.45°N 155.37°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	101 kt	center	E31/60/50 (CLOSED)
09-25 22:41	AF302 0315E	16.65°N 155.37°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	90 kt	center	E24/50/40 (CLOSED)
09-26 05:23	AF306 0415E	16.86°N 155.23°W	700 mb	975 mb	dropsonde	80 kt	center	C40 (OPEN E)
09-26 06:47	AF306 0415E	16.87°N 155.23°W	700 mb	977 mb	dropsonde	80 kt	center	C40 (OPEN E)
09-26 08:33	AF306 0415E	16.85°N 155.28°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	85 kt	center	C34 (CLOSED)
09-26 10:34	AF306 0415E	16.85°N 155.34°W	700 mb	975 mb	dropsonde	73 kt	center	C40 (OPEN NE-E)
09-26 14:33	AF302 0515E	16.88°N 155.46°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	77 kt	center	C32 (CLOSED)
09-26 16:06	AF302 0515E	16.90°N 155.54°W	700 mb	976 mb	dropsonde	72 kt	center	C32 (CLOSED)
09-26 17:39	AF302 0515E	16.79°N 155.66°W	700 mb	977 mb	dropsonde	83 kt	center	E09/36/30 (CLOSED)
09-26 19:09	AF302 0515E	16.70°N 155.78°W	700 mb	978 mb	dropsonde	75 kt	center	C30 (OPEN NE)
09-26 20:30	AF302 0515E	16.75°N 155.86°W	700 mb	977 mb	dropsonde	74 kt	center	C30 (OPEN N)
09-26 23:40	AF306 0615E	16.69°N 156.07°W	700 mb	973 mb	dropsonde	77 kt	center	E11/35/25 (CLOSED)
09-27 01:14	AF306 0615E	16.69°N 156.19°W	700 mb	970 mb	dropsonde	73 kt	center	C30 (CLOSED)
09-27 02:40	AF306 0615E	16.60°N 156.39°W	700 mb	969 mb	dropsonde	82 kt	center	C25 (OPEN N)
09-27 04:32	AF306 0615E	16.56°N 156.65°W	700 mb	968 mb	dropsonde	82 kt	center	C25 (OPEN N)
09-27 11:55	AF300 0715E	16.25°N 157.83°W	700 mb	970 mb	dropsonde	87 kt	center	C25 (CLOSED)
09-27 13:35	AF300 0715E	16.20°N 158.11°W	700 mb	968 mb	dropsonde	92 kt	center	C20 (CLOSED)
09-27 15:05	AF300 0715E	16.17°N 158.32°W	700 mb	966 mb	dropsonde	97 kt	center	C30 (CLOSED)
09-27 16:36	AF300 0715E	16.16°N 158.58°W	700 mb	965 mb	dropsonde	105 kt	center	C28 (CLOSED)

All flights for Nolo on the Recon page

SHIPS data captured 2026-09-11 12:00 UTC – 2026-10-04 18:00 UTC · Peak intensity 135 kt · 63 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment

Environmental history across Nolo's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value. The aircraft lane shows each aircraft fix (observation) of minimum sea-level pressure, from NHC's ATCF fix file; it is not the best track.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, JTWC (PGTW)Dvorak, CPHC (PHFO)Dvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.