This is an independent research/prototype tool, not an official source. Warnings, watches, and the official forecast for this storm come from the National Hurricane Center.

Final data: 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC — Karina is no longer being actively tracked (Tropical Storm). See the RI climatology or the marine heatwave map for current activity.

Tropical Storm Karina EP112026

Peak 125 kt (Category 4) · Recorded 2026-08-25 00:00 UTC – 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC · 46 cycles archived

SHIPS coverage: 42 of 42 tropical or subtropical 6-hourly fixes (100%)

Category 4125 kt peakRI: +55 kt in 24 h beginning 8/30 06Z

Final position 23.1°N 146.2°W · last moving WNW at 5 kt · final pressure 998 mb · final advisory 43, 2026-09-07 03:00 UTC

Rapid intensification

Based on preliminary operational best-track data. NHC's post-season reanalysis can revise a storm's wind history — in marginal cases, this could change whether the storm still meets the RI threshold.

10°N20°N30°N160°W140°W120°W100°WRapid intensification2026-08-25 00:00 UTC · 8.6°N 103.8°W · 15 kt2026-08-25 06:00 UTC · 8.7°N 104.4°W · 15 kt2026-08-25 12:00 UTC · 8.8°N 104.8°W · 15 kt2026-08-25 18:00 UTC · 8.9°N 105.3°W · 15 kt2026-08-26 00:00 UTC · 9.0°N 106.0°W · 20 kt2026-08-26 06:00 UTC · 9.0°N 106.6°W · 20 kt2026-08-26 12:00 UTC · 9.1°N 107.0°W · 25 kt2026-08-26 18:00 UTC · 9.4°N 107.8°W · 25 kt2026-08-27 00:00 UTC · 9.5°N 108.7°W · 25 kt2026-08-27 06:00 UTC · 9.5°N 109.7°W · 30 kt2026-08-27 12:00 UTC · 10.0°N 110.7°W · 30 kt2026-08-27 18:00 UTC · 10.8°N 111.5°W · 40 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 43%2026-08-28 00:00 UTC · 11.7°N 112.6°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 62%2026-08-28 06:00 UTC · 12.4°N 113.9°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 36%2026-08-28 12:00 UTC · 12.9°N 114.7°W · 50 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 23%2026-08-28 18:00 UTC · 13.4°N 115.2°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 63%2026-08-29 00:00 UTC · 13.9°N 115.9°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 53%2026-08-29 06:00 UTC · 14.4°N 116.6°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 37%2026-08-29 12:00 UTC · 15.3°N 117.2°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 30%2026-08-29 18:00 UTC · 16.1°N 118.3°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 22%2026-08-30 00:00 UTC · 16.7°N 119.6°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 20%2026-08-30 06:00 UTC · 17.2°N 120.7°W · 65 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 18%2026-08-30 12:00 UTC · 17.3°N 121.7°W · 70 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 17%2026-08-30 18:00 UTC · 17.1°N 122.4°W · 80 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 16%2026-08-31 00:00 UTC · 17.1°N 123.3°W · 110 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 17%2026-08-31 06:00 UTC · 17.2°N 124.0°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-08-31 12:00 UTC · 17.3°N 124.7°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 9%2026-08-31 18:00 UTC · 17.4°N 125.4°W · 115 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-01 00:00 UTC · 17.7°N 126.3°W · 115 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-01 06:00 UTC · 18.0°N 127.4°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-01 12:00 UTC · 18.0°N 128.5°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-01 18:00 UTC · 18.1°N 129.4°W · 115 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-02 00:00 UTC · 18.2°N 130.3°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-02 06:00 UTC · 18.5°N 131.2°W · 125 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-02 12:00 UTC · 18.7°N 132.3°W · 125 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-02 18:00 UTC · 18.8°N 133.3°W · 120 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-03 00:00 UTC · 19.2°N 134.2°W · 115 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-03 06:00 UTC · 19.5°N 135.2°W · 105 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-03 12:00 UTC · 19.7°N 136.2°W · 100 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-03 18:00 UTC · 19.7°N 137.2°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-04 00:00 UTC · 20.0°N 138.0°W · 90 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-04 06:00 UTC · 20.3°N 138.9°W · 85 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-04 12:00 UTC · 20.3°N 139.9°W · 85 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-04 18:00 UTC · 20.4°N 140.7°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 13%2026-09-05 00:00 UTC · 20.6°N 141.6°W · 75 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 12%2026-09-05 06:00 UTC · 21.2°N 142.2°W · 65 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 11%2026-09-05 12:00 UTC · 21.4°N 142.7°W · 65 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 7%2026-09-05 18:00 UTC · 21.5°N 143.3°W · 60 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-06 00:00 UTC · 21.8°N 143.7°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-06 06:00 UTC · 22.2°N 144.1°W · 55 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-06 12:00 UTC · 22.6°N 144.7°W · 50 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-06 18:00 UTC · 22.8°N 145.1°W · 45 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%2026-09-07 00:00 UTC · 23.0°N 145.7°W · 40 kt · SHIPS 30 kt/24 h: 0%
Observed trackRapid intensification
Position from ATCF best track. Hover a point for time, position, wind, and SHIPS RI probability when available.

SHIPS data captured 2026-08-26 06:00 UTC – 2026-09-07 00:00 UTC · Peak intensity 125 kt · 46 cycles archived

hover the chart to inspect a moment
Environmental history across Karina's recorded life. Shaded band(s) mark the same rapid-intensification episode(s) shown in the RI badge above (identical computation, ≥30 kt/24 h merged episodes from best track). Shaded span covers all qualifying 24 h windows, so it can extend past the intensity peak. The SHIPS-RII lane is the forecast probability issued at each cycle, not an observed value.Hover to inspect any moment across every lane at once.

Satellite intensity estimates

Best-track windDvorak, JTWC (PGTW)Dvorak, CPHC (PHFO)Dvorak, TAFB (NHC)ADT (UW-CIMSS)SATCON (UW-CIMSS)Maximum wind (kt) estimated from satellite imagery — estimates, not observations, and not the official intensity. ADT and SATCON: UW-CIMSS, delivered through NHC’s ATCF fix files. Subjective Dvorak from the agency named on each fix.